This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.
ST. LOUIS – We are in the middle of a major global pattern change. We are moving from our third La Nina year to an El Niño pattern. And there are some indications that this pattern could be what’s called a Super Niño. That sounds pretty ominous – and it could be.
The last Super Niño pattern was in 2016, and we saw the warmest global temperature on record. It also could bring a heightened risk of droughts and floods and stronger storms. However, it could also bring a quieter hurricane season.
But what does that all mean to St. Louis? Let’s dive into it.
June
We begin June a bit behind the eight ball. April and May have trended dry and our yearly average for rainfall is running a little bit short.
The drought severity across Missouri is heightened just a bit because of this. So, we need rain.
Ask your lawn or garden. I’ve seen more sprinklers running in the last few weeks because of this. I think the dry pattern of the last few weeks will continue into June. We will have some opportunities for rain, but not all will get as much as they need. Keep the sprinklers handy.
Dry weather is typically a sign that more warm air will be able to build. We’ve seen that happen this month, where dry time allows the temps to warm — that 93° record high a few weeks ago is a sign that warm air is ready to pounce.
Last year, we had a hot June; 15 days of temperatures over 90°. We hit 100° in the middle of the month, with several 99s and 98s. I think that kind of quick heat could happen this year again, especially with the dry trends.
June 2022 was dry, almost 3” short for rainfall, and our drought severity increased. This year, I could see the same dry trends happening, at least for the first half of the month.
July
July is where I think we’ll start to see the real effects of the El Niño pattern. At some point, in late June or early July, there should be local pattern shift. It will be one that could favor more of a wet pattern and, with that, not as much heat.
I mean, normal July heat is still hot, but there should not be as much buildup of heat that we get an extreme stretch of above normal heat. I think the rain chances are what will drive that, and the rain possibilities will be increasing.
Last July, we were having a normal rainfall month, then the big storm hit: over 9” of rain and the flooding issues around the region. You can never predict out months in advance that a storm like that could happen – and I am not going to. But rain events in July will be ramping up.
Last July, we were hot: six days over 100°! I don’t think we will see that kind of heat this July. Again, let’s watch for that local pattern switch. And last July, we were having a pretty normal rain month until the big storm and the flash flooding.
This July, we will see more rain opportunities. The rainfall will not all come in one storm. In the end, we might finish a little above normal for rainfall.
August
August is normally when you start to say, “Ok summer, I need a break.” We look north for cool fronts or south for some soaking rain, and neither really get here.
August is typically hot and dry. But remember the advertised pattern switch, both locally and globally? That may be evident this August. Honestly, I don’t think we will really see all the effects of the El Niño pattern until we get to winter. That will be something to monitor for the next few months. Like July, August will have more rain opportunities.
Early August last year, we had another big storm that brought another 5” of rain, but then we were generally dry for the next several weeks. This year, more opportunities will mean more than normal rain chances. That trend will also keep our heat from building. So I think there will be less of a chance of a long stretch of big heat.
Last August had big rain at the beginning of the month, then below normal rainfall for the rest of the month. This August will have more chances for rain and could lead to an above normal rainfall trend — kinda like July.
And August heat is legendary. We had 11 days over 90° last year, with a few 98s. But this year is a little different. A different pattern will bring the temperatures down a bit with fewer chances of extreme heat and fewer chances for a long heat wave.
