The impact of demographic change in Europe (2024)

The power of demography

Demography tells the story of our lives. It is about how old we are likely to become, how many children we can expect to have, and where and how we are likely to spend our lives. Demographic change has a powerful impact on our economies, on our welfare and health systems as well as on housing and infrastructure needs in Europe's regions. This in turn has implications for government budgets and policies. The EU integrates demographic concerns into the development of relevant EU policies and we have taken a number of specific initiatives at EU level which support Member States in dealing with demographic change.

Read the report: The impact of demographic change in a changing environment

Highlights

The impact of demographic change in Europe (1)

23 April 2024 - Commission issues recommendations to better protect children from violence

The Commission has today adopted the Recommendation on developing and strengthening integrated child protection systems in the best interests of the child, as a commitment in the EU Strategy on the Rights of the Child. The EU still faces significant challenges in protecting children from violence, including bullying and childhood sexual violence. The Recommendation will support Member States in strengthening their child protection systems.

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Demographic trends

Understanding the causes and effects of demographic transitions allows us to better manage their consequences and make use of their opportunities, ultimately helping us build a prosperous EU for future generations.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (2)

More working from home

The share of employed people working from home in the EU jumped from 1 in 7 people in 2019 to 1 in 5 in 2020. In 2021, almost every fourth person was working from home.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (3)

Lower birth rate

In 2020, the average number of childbirths per woman was 1.5, which is well below the value of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (4)

Growing senior population

By 2050 the share of people over 65 will be around 30%, compared to around 20% today.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (5)

Smaller households

The number of households has continued to grow, while the average household size has continued to fall. Households composed by a single person have grown the fastest, to over 70 million in 2021.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (6)

Living longer

Following a drop during the COVID-19 pandemic, the gradual increase in life expectancy has resumed. In 2021, the life expectancy in the EU was estimated at 82.8 years for women and 77.2 years for men.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (7)

Less Europeans in the world

The share of Europe’s population in the world is shrinking and it will account for around 4% of the world’s population in 2070 compared to 6% today.

The impact of demographic change

Demographic change in the EU has an impact on

  • the labour market- as Europe’sworking-age population is shrinkingsustaining economic growth requires us to bringmore people into the labour market and/or to increase productivity through technological advances and skills development
  • employment- as people live longer and healthier lives, many citizens want to work longer, although not necessarily in the same kind of jobs.
  • care services- the growing share of older people in the EU brings an increased need for care services and challenges the long-term financial sustainability of our welfare states
  • demographic balance - demographic trends do not affect every country and every region in the same way. Whereas a number of EU Member States are projected to experience a decline in their population already in the next years, others are projected to see population growth over the same period
  • rural areas- generally speaking, rural regions are more affected by population decline due to natural changes and outmigration than predominantly urban ones
  • Europe’s position in the world- as the EU’s share of the global population is projected to continue falling in the coming decades, the need for close cooperation at all levels to ensure the competitiveness of our Single Market becomes ever more pressing

See more demographic statistics for individual EU countries

Europe's ageing population

Europeans are living longer and healthier lives than ever before.In the coming decades, the share and number of older people in the EU will increase. This trend has a significant impact on people’s everyday lives and on our societies, which brings with it both opportunities and challenges.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (8)

Shrinking youth population

The share of people in the 15-29-year-old age range decreased from 18.1% in 2011, to 16.3% in 2021. This trend is expected to continue and become even more pronounced in rural regions.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (9)

Growing senior population

By 2050, the share of people over 65 will be around 30%, compared to around 20% today. An older population poses challenges for things like pension systems and the healthcare sector.

Given the scale, speed and impact this trend will have across society, it is important to consider new approaches and ensure that policies are fit for purpose in an era of major change – from the green and digital transitions to new forms of work and addressing the key health challenges, including pandemics.

Competences for dealing with the effects of ageing are largely in the hands of Member States and the EU is well placed to identify key issues and trends and support action on ageing at national, regional, and local level. It can help Member States and regions develop their own, tailor-made policy responses to ageing.

Green paper on ageing

The European Commission published the green paper on ageing in January 2021 launching a broad policy debate on ageing to discuss options on how to anticipate and respond to the challenges and opportunities that ageing brings as well as how to help keep a good life quality of the ageing population as long as possible. Contributions to the public consultation on the green paper helped identify the measures needed to support to promote economic and social resilience in an ageing Europe.

General publications29 September 2021

Green paper on ageing (2021) - Synopsis report on the public consultation

Demography Toolbox

Europe is undergoing a major demographic transformation. Demographic change has a profound impact on everyday life and requires holistic and integrated solutions.

Since our citizens are living longer and healthier lives, all our policies need to be forward-looking and support the shift from an ageing to a longevity society.

The June 2023 European Council conclusions called on the Commission to put forward a toolbox to support Member States in addressing demographic challenges and their impact on Europe’s competitive edge.

The demography toolbox, prepared in response by the Commission, draws on experiences from across the EU and sets out a comprehensive approach to demographic change structured around four pillars:

  1. support parents by better reconciling family aspirations and paid work, notably by ensuring access to quality childcare and good work-life balance;
  2. supporting and empowering younger generations to thrive, develop their skills, facilitate their access to the labour market and to affordable housing;
  3. empowering older generations and sustaining their welfare, through reforms combined with appropriate labour market and workplace policies;
  4. where necessary, addressing labour shortages through managed legal migration, in full complementarity to harnessing talents from within the EU.

The toolbox recognises the need to take on board the territorial dimension of demographic shifts, specifically in regions that experience the phenomenon of population decline and a significant outward mobility of young workers (‘brain drain’).

What we are working on

The impact of demographic change in Europe (10)

Atlas on Demography

Tool to visualise, monitor and anticipate demographic change.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (11)

European Care Strategy

Ensuring care services that put people first, from childhood to old age.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (12)

Long-term vision for EU rural areas

Connecting rural areas to make them stronger, resilient and more prosperous.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (13)

Rights of the Child Strategy

Empowering children as agents of change today and on their way to becoming tomorrow’s leaders.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (14)

European Child Guarantee

Supporting children in need by improving access to basics like education and housing.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (15)

Fighting child sexual abuse

Preventing and combatting child sexual abuse, online and offline.

The impact of demographic change in Europe (17)

Loneliness in the EU

Addressing a critical public health issue with effective intervention strategies.

Latest

Documents

23 APRIL 2024

Communication putting children’s interests first accompanying the Recommendation on integrated child protection systems

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23 APRIL 2024

Recommendation on developing and strengthening integrated child protection systems in the best interests of the child

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23 APRIL 2024

Annex to the Communication on developing and strengthening integrated child protection systems in the best interests of the child

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23 APRIL 2024

Staff Working Document accompanying the Recommendation on developing and strengthening integrated child protection systems in the best interests of the child

English

(1.4 MB - PDF)

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23 APRIL 2024

Factsheet - Delivering on the EU strategy on the rights of the child

6 FEBRUARY 2024

Proposal for Directive on combating child sexual abuse and annexes

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6 FEBRUARY 2024

Proposal for Directive on combating child sexual abuse - factsheet

English

(840.86 KB - PDF)

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6 FEBRUARY 2024

Regulatory Scrutiny Board Opinion Revision of Directive 2011/93/EU on combating child sexual abuse

English

(669.14 KB - PDF)

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11 OCTOBER 2023

Communication “Demographic change in Europe: a toolbox for action

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11 OCTOBER 2023

Demographic change in Europe: a toolbox for action - factsheet

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(824.49 KB - PDF)

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  • Report
  • Joint Research Centre

Demography and climate change: new study explores links between the two mega-trends of our century

Understanding the links between population dynamics and the causes and consequences of climate change will help design future-looking policies for a greener planet.

17 JANUARY 2023

The impact of demographic change - in a changing environment (2023)

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17 JANUARY 2023

The impact of demographic change - in a changing environment (2023) – Reader friendly version

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17 JANUARY 2023

Harnessing talent in Europe’s regions (2023)

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7 SEPTEMBER 2022

European Care Strategy (2022) - Factsheet

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(4.79 MB - PDF)

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14 JUNE 2021

Green paper on aging (2021) - Reader friendly version

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(982.33 KB - PDF)

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27 JANUARY 2021

Green paper on ageing (2021)

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27 JANUARY 2021

Green Paper on ageing (2021) - Factsheet

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17 JUNE 2020

Report on the impact of demographic change (2020) - Reader friendly version

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17 JUNE 2020

Report on the impact of demographic change (2020)

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17 JUNE 2020

Report on the impact of demographic change (2020) - Commission staff working document

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17 JUNE 2020

Report on the impact of demographic change (2020) - Factsheet

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The impact of demographic change in Europe (2024)

FAQs

What is the impact of demographic changes? ›

Demographic change can influence the underlying growth rate of the economy, structural productivity growth, living standards, savings rates, consumption, and investment; it can influence the long‐​run unemployment rate and equilibrium interest rate, housing market trends, and the demand for financial assets.

Why are Europe's demographics changing? ›

European societies are undergoing significant demographic changes, most notably the trend towards feminization and ageing of their workforce. Intertwined with a process of educational upgrading, these shifts are reshaping the landscape of the continent's labour market (Lutz and Skirbekk 2014).

What is the demographic challenge in Europe? ›

For EU citizens, the two most pressing demographic challenges in EU Member States are population ageing (42%) and a shrinking working-age population and labour shortages (40%). These are followed by migration and integration (34%), depopulation and brain drain (26%) and the declining fertility rate (21%).

How did the European demographic changes cause the industrial revolution? ›

One of the triggers was the unusually high growth in the population which set in around the middle of the 18th century and produced a gigantic reservoir of workers. At the same time new, more efficient methods of production became necessary in order to supply the basic needs of so many people.

Which demographic challenge is Europe currently experiencing? ›

Expert-Verified Answer. The answer is A. An aging and decreasing population is a demographic challenge that Europe is currently experiencing.

What are the effects of the demographic transition? ›

Health Needs of the Population. Demographic transition posits that with improvements in health, mortality rates start to drop faster than fertility rates. This results in a short-lived increase in family size. Due to the lag between mortality and fertility, population will increase.

What 4 reasons led to an increase in population in Europe? ›

Analyzing the Major Changes of Europe during this time that led to population increase. Improvements in health care, eating habits, and birth rates all are factors in population increase. The growth of the cottage industry allowed for people from rural areas to make money, and acquire land.

What will be the future demographics of Europe? ›

In 2022, the EU's working-age population (15-64 years old) accounted for almost two-thirds (63.9 %) of the total population. This share is projected to decline continuously, down to 56.6 % by 2060, followed by a decade-long plateau and then a further decline to 54.4 % by 2100 (-9.5 pp.)

What is Europe's demographic decline the result of? ›

Low fertility and emigration are two principal demographic forces shaping the onset and the pace of population decline.

What demographic stage is Europe in? ›

When a country enters Stage 4, the population ages, meanwhile fewer children are born. This creates an enormous strain on the social safety net programs of a country as is tries to support older citizens who are no longer working and contributing to the economy. Most of Europe has entered Stage 4.

What is happening to the population in Europe? ›

EU population shows a strong increase in 2022

After a first interruption of population growth in 2020 and 2021 due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the population of the European Union at 27 countries increased again in 2022, from 446.7 million on 1 January 2022 to 448.4 million on 1 January 2023.

What are the problems with the demographic transition? ›

The main challenges posed by the end of demographic transition include a lack of resources to provide for the entire global population, the effects of climate change, contamination and population ageing. Each region faces a distinct future based on levels of economic development, demographics and geography.

What was a major demographic impact of the Industrial Revolution? ›

At the same time, the population changed—it increased and became more urbanized, healthy, and educated. This nation was forever transformed for the better. Immigration from Great Britain's rural areas and foreign countries contributed to a steady rise in population as the Industrial Revolution was underway.

How did demographics change as a result of industrialization? ›

With industrialization, improvements in medical knowledge and public health, together with a more regular food supply, bring about a drastic reduction in the death rate but no corresponding decline in the birth rate. The result is a population explosion, as experienced in 19th-century Europe.

What was the most significant effect of population growth in Europe between 1700 and 1800? ›

“The most significant effect of population growth in Europe within the period 1700-1800 was the growth and modernization of countries, who were able to establish colonies to grow more foods.” (Although the linkage is indirect between population growth, modernization, and colonization, the response makes a historically ...

What are the effects of demographics? ›

Demographic change can influence the underlying growth rate of an economy, structural productivity growth, living standards, savings rates, consumption and investment.

What is the problem with demographic changes? ›

Demographic change has a powerful impact on our economies, welfare and health systems, budgets, housing and infrastructure needs. Understanding the causes of demographic transitions allows us to better manage their consequences and prepare for the future.

How do demographic factors affect? ›

Demographics can include any statistical factors that influence population growth or decline, but several parameters are particularly important: population size, density, age structure, fecundity (birth rates), mortality (death rates), and sex ratio (Dodge 2006). We introduce each of these in turn.

How does demographic affect social change? ›

Demographic processes

Population growth and increasing population density represent demographic forms of social change. Population growth may lead to geographic expansion of a society, military conflicts, and the intermingling of cultures.

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